Enrollment evidence · aggregate data only

Where did the 30% enrollment claim come from?

We can reproduce a near-term middle-school cohort increase. We cannot reproduce a districtwide 30% growth path—or determine what the reported 30% measured—without the complete NESDEC report and workbook.

The missing NESDEC package is the top evidence blocker.The question is not whether growth is possible. It is which population, years, assumptions, and decision the 30% figure described.

What the available record shows

A cohort wave and districtwide growth are not the same thing.

2001 peak to 2026−27.1%

District enrollment is below its long-run peak.

2021 to 20262,865 → 2,836

The most recent five years are nearly flat (−1.0%).

2026 grades 6–8610

Aggregate official count used in the independent continuation.

Illustrative 2028 grades 6–8about 660

An 8.2% cohort increase can occur while district enrollment remains broadly stable.

Illustrative 2031 district range2,808–2,996

Transparent continuation range; not a NESDEC forecast.

Reported 2034 WMS outlookabove 700

Meeting statement that cannot be fully reproduced without the NESDEC package.

The 2028 and 2031 values are independent, transparent continuations. They are not NESDEC projections and should be updated as actual cohorts and the consultant’s assumptions become available.

Claim-by-claim check

What aligns—and what still cannot be reproduced

MISSINGThe relevant student population would grow by approximately 30%.

The numerator, denominator, population, base year, horizon, scenario, confidence range, and decision record have not been supplied.

PARTIALMiddle-school enrollment could rise almost 9% in two to three years.

The independent cohort continuation reaches about 660 in 2028 from 610 in 2026, an 8.2% increase.

REPORTEDMiddle-school enrollment may exceed 700 by 2034.

The result is sensitive to future kindergarten assumptions and cannot be traced to a complete NESDEC table.

The exact questions for the source record

What would let us understand the 30% figure?

01What population is in the numerator and denominator?

02What are the baseline and end years?

03Is this districtwide, WMS, grades 6–8, or a selected cohort?

04Does 30% describe enrollment, capacity, design enrollment, or building size?

05Which birth, migration, school-choice, housing, and grade-progression assumptions were selected?

06Which dated planning or design decision relied on the figure?

Source and privacy boundary

The current analysis uses public aggregate records.

The supporting record is Wilbraham Enrollment Trend and Outlook v0.5.0, dated August 29, 2026. It uses aggregate DESE enrollment, municipal population, resident births, tax-base indicators, and the January 8 School Committee recording. It contains no student-level or protected information.

The official recording establishes what was said. It does not substitute for the complete NESDEC report, grade-by-year tables, footnotes, assumptions, or version identity.